Every quarter, Canterbury's Outsourced CIO committee shares their observations of the market that impact the management of our discretionary portfolios in the Canterbury OCIO Review.
For most of 2018, news of trade wars and tariffs dominated headlines. Concern about the impact that the swelling number of tariffs can have on the price of U.S. exports and imports, and the further implications for global trade, has been one reason for higher volatility in equity markets. At the same time, however, the U.S. equity markets have continued to climb, with the S&P 500 up 10.6 percent for the three quarters ending September. Perhaps the economic drag from tariffs could be trumped by the corporate tax cuts, repatriation of corporate cash, and increased government spending that are part of the $1.5 trillion U.S. fiscal stimulus package introduced at the beginning of 2018. Per the Commerce Department, U.S. GDP grew 4.2 percent in the second quarter and is estimated to grow at an annualized rate of 3.6 percent for the third quarter.